The Enrollment Problem Might Not Be the Cliff

Christian colleges have spent years talking about the enrollment cliff. In many ways, the conversation has become so common that some leaders have started tuning it out entirely. Yet according to enrollment strategist Bart Caylor, the more immediate issue for many institutions may not simply be the declining number of traditional undergraduate students. It may be how undisciplined many institutions still are in their enrollment operations.

That distinction matters because demographic realities are outside an institution’s control. Operational maturity is not.

The institutions navigating enrollment pressure most effectively are not necessarily the ones with the biggest budgets or largest marketing teams. More often, they are the ones that have developed disciplined systems for communication, relationship-building, reporting, and follow-up long before panic season arrives in the spring.

Too many Christian colleges still operate reactively. Recruitment efforts intensify in April when deposits are lagging, campus-wide phone campaigns suddenly emerge, and leadership scrambles to close gaps at the last minute. By then, however, many important enrollment decisions have already been made elsewhere.

Caylor’s argument throughout the conversation is simple but important: enrollment success is becoming less about volume and more about process discipline.

The Bigger Risk May Be the “Search Cliff”

While most leaders are familiar with the enrollment cliff, Caylor introduces another challenge many institutions are not preparing for: the “search cliff.”

For decades, colleges have relied heavily on purchased student names from standardized testing organizations and search vendors. Institutions built large top-of-funnel recruitment strategies around ACT, SAT, and PSAT participation. But as more colleges moved test-optional during and after the pandemic, fewer students began taking those exams. That means fewer names are entering the traditional search market.

For institutions heavily dependent on purchased search names, this creates a significant long-term problem.

Caylor argues this shift may ultimately force institutions to become healthier recruiters. For years, many colleges relied on mass communication strategies that emphasized quantity over relationship quality. Schools could simply buy more names and hope more inquiries eventually translated into enrollment.

But more names never guaranteed better outcomes.

Instead, institutions now need stronger relationship ecosystems. Churches, pastors, parents, coaches, teachers, alumni, and local communities increasingly matter because institutions can no longer depend solely on broad-name purchasing strategies to sustain the funnel.

That shift may be uncomfortable for some enrollment teams, but it also creates opportunity. Christian colleges that genuinely understand their mission and student fit often perform best when recruitment becomes more relational and less transactional.

Many Enrollment Offices Still Lack Operational Discipline

One of the more revealing parts of the conversation is Caylor’s observation that some institutions still manage enrollment processes primarily through spreadsheets and reactive communication patterns.

In an increasingly competitive environment, that creates major problems.

Caylor repeatedly emphasizes that customer relationship management systems, or CRMs, are no longer optional for serious enrollment work. While some institutions assume CRMs are financially out of reach, he argues that even basic systems dramatically improve communication consistency, follow-up discipline, and long-term enrollment tracking.

The larger issue is not merely technology. It is operational maturity.

Institutions need systems that help them track where students are throughout the enrollment funnel:

• inquiry
• application started
• application completed
• accepted
• deposited
• enrolled

Without that visibility, leadership teams often operate emotionally instead of strategically. Enrollment conversations become driven by anxiety rather than data.

Caylor argues presidents and cabinet leaders should regularly review weekly funnel reports because enrollment management is too important to evaluate only during crisis moments. Longitudinal data helps institutions identify patterns early, forecast more accurately, and avoid the panic-driven decision-making that often emerges late in the cycle.

The key insight here is not that enrollment should become mechanical. It is that disciplined systems create the stability needed for healthier relationship-building.

Recruitment Does Not End Once the Student Enrolls

Another practical insight from the conversation is Caylor’s argument that many colleges stop recruiting students the moment they arrive on campus.

Institutions spend months persuading students to enroll, communicating constantly with families, reinforcing mission fit, and highlighting student experience. Then, once students arrive, communication often shifts abruptly. Recruitment language disappears, departments become siloed, and institutions unintentionally assume students will simply stay.

Caylor believes this creates a major retention blind spot.

He compares it to a relationship where all the energy exists during courtship but disappears after commitment. Institutions frequently re-engage students again only after graduation when advancement offices begin donor outreach.

Meanwhile, current students are still making enrollment decisions every semester.

That observation is especially important given the transfer and attrition challenges facing many institutions. Retention is not merely an academic issue or student life issue. It is also a communication issue. Students need continued reinforcement that they made the right decision, that they belong, and that the institution remains invested in their success.

Increasingly, some colleges are using CRM systems beyond admissions to maintain communication, encourage persistence, and strengthen student connection throughout the student lifecycle.

The Best Recruitment Strategies May Be More Human, Not Less

Despite growing conversations around automation, AI, and enrollment technology, one of the strongest themes in Caylor’s conversation is that relationships still matter most.

Technology helps institutions scale communication, improve consistency, and reduce operational chaos. But technology alone does not create trust or mission fit.

In fact, Caylor notes that many institutions may need to think more creatively and personally about who represents the institution. One example he shares is colleges hiring mothers later in their careers as admissions counselors because of their natural ability to communicate relationally with both students and parents.

That insight reflects a broader shift happening across enrollment work. Institutions that succeed moving forward may not necessarily be the loudest marketers or the most automated recruiters. They may simply be the institutions that communicate clearly, follow up consistently, and build trust more effectively than competitors.

Enrollment Health Is an Institutional Leadership Issue

One of the clearest takeaways from the conversation is that enrollment management can no longer function as an isolated office operating independently from institutional leadership.

Healthy enrollment systems require executive attention, consistent reporting, operational discipline, and institution-wide alignment. Presidents, cabinet leaders, marketing teams, admissions counselors, and student-facing departments all contribute to whether recruitment and retention systems function effectively.

The enrollment cliff is real. But for many Christian colleges, the larger challenge may be whether their systems, communication practices, and leadership habits are mature enough to operate effectively in a more competitive environment.

Institutions that recognize that shift early will likely be far better positioned for the years ahead.

This blog came from an interview with Bart Caylor, founder of Caylor Solutions, hosted by Philip Dearborn, president of ABHE on the podcast Biblical Higher Ed Talk. Click below to watch the full interview.

Continue Developing Your Enrollment Team

ABHE institutions are navigating increasingly complex enrollment challenges, but stronger systems and healthier recruitment practices can be learned and developed.

Through the ABHE Leadership Academy, enrollment leaders and teams now have access to practical, higher education-focused training designed specifically for biblical and Christian institutions.

Current enrollment-focused courses include:

• Recruiting Mission-Fit Students taught by AJ Crocker
• Enrollment Website and Social Media taught by Bart Caylor
• Enrollment Leadership taught by Phil Cook
• Enrollment Data: So What? taught by Tim Fuller

Additional courses are currently in development.

The Leadership Academy is available at no cost to all faculty and staff serving at ABHE member institutions, making it an accessible way to strengthen enrollment strategy, leadership development, and student recruitment practices across your campus. The micro-courses are designed to be flexible, short, and focused for busy institution leaders.